Description:

The International Microsimulation Association held its 8^th World Congress (online) on December 1-3, 2021, with the objective to bring together leading researchers in the field of microsimulation and agent-based modelling to discuss their most recent research. The congress was open to all areas of microsimulation, including static and dynamic microsimulations, agent-based models, behavioural models, and all applied and methodological contributions related to microsimulation. There was also a special workshop on teaching and training in microsimulation modelling.

Organising committee

• Gijs Dekkers (Federal Planning Bureau)
• Tanja Kirn (Univesity of Liechtenstein)
• Cathal O’Donoghue (NUI Galway)
• Matteo Richiardi (CeMPA, University of Essex)
• Bryan Tysinger (University of Southern California)

Orcutt Lecture

• Anders Klevmarken (Nationalekonomiska Institutionen Uppsala Universitet, Sweden), “Should we invest in microsimulation models?”

Keynote Speakers

• Vittal Katikireddi (University of Glasgow, UK), “Microsimulation as evidence synthesis: informing a ‘health in all policies’ approach”
• Nora Lustig (Tulane University, US), “Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America”
• Gemma Wright (SASPRI, South Africa), “The distributional impact of COVID-19 and state-led remedial measures in Indonesia and South Africa in 2020”

Program

Please download here the latest version of the program.

Best paper by young researchers award

The International Microsimulation Association awarded a prize of EUR 500 for the best paper authored by author(s) below 35 years of age (excluded). To qualify for the award, all authors had to satisfy the age requirement. The winning paper is “Changing the tax structure to reduce income inequality in Colombia: A microsimulation model”, by Nicolás Ortega Rodríguez.

Special issue of the International Journal of Microsimulation

Selected papers presented at the Congress will be published as a special issue of the International Journal of Microsimulation. Please consider submitting your paper before March 31, 2022, specifying in the cover letter that the paper should be considered for the special issue.

Programme Schedule

Overview

Day 1	Wednesday, 1st December 2021
8.15	Welcome & Official Opening: Prof Cathal O’Donoghue, Prof Matteo Richiardi Introduction: Prof Robert Tanton, President, International Microsimulation Association
8.30	Session 1: Labour supply and demand I; Chair: Karina Doorley
9.30	Coffee Break
9.45	Session 2: Labour supply and demand II; Chair: Karina Doorley
11.05	Coffee Break
11.20	Session 3: Environment; Chair: Cathal O’Donoghue
13.00	Lunch break
14.00	Plenary 1. Prof Nora Lustig: “Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America”. Chair: Cathal O’Donoghue
15.00	Session 4: Dynamic microsimulation I; Chair: Gijs Dekkers
16.20	Coffee Break
16.35	Session 5: Dynamic microsimulation II; Chair: Denisa Sologon
18.15	Coffee Break
18.30	Session 6: Pensions and Retirement I; Chair: Gijs Dekkers
19.30	End of day 1

Day 2	Thursday, 2nd December 2021
8.30	Plenary 2: Orcutt Lecture. Prof Anders Klevmarken: “Should we invest in microsimulation models?”. Chair: Robert Tanton
9.30	Coffee Break
9.45	Session 7: Taxes and benefits I; Chair: Jinjing Li
11.05	Coffee Break
11.20	Session 8: Taxes and benefits II; Chair: Tanja Kirn
13.00	Lunch break
14.00	Plenary 3. Prof Gemma Wright: “The distributional impact of COVID-19 and state- led remedial measures in Indonesia and South Africa in 2020”. Chair: Matteo Richiardi
15.00	Session 9: Methodology; Chair: Matteo Richiardi
16.20	Coffee Break
16.35	Session 10: Pensions and retirement II; Chair: Sophie Pennec
17.55	Coffee Break
18.10	Session 11: Labour supply and demand III; Chair: Philippe Liégeois
19.30	End of day 2

Day 3	Friday, 3rd December 2021
8.20	Plenary 4. Prof Matteo Richiardi, Prof Cathal O’Donoghue, Dr Philippe Liegeois: Microsimulation, Education and Training. Book Launch: “Practical Microsimulation Modelling”.
9.00	Best Paper by Young Researcher. Nicolás Ortega Rodríguez: “Changing the tax structure to reduce income inequality in Colombia: A microsimulation model.” Chair: Cathal O’Donoghue
9.30	Coffee Break
9.45	Session 12: Health I; Chair: Matteo Richiardi
11.05	Coffee Break
11.20	Session 13: Spatial microsimulation; Chair: Matteo Richiardi
13.00	Lunch break
14.00	Plenary 5. Prof Vittal Katikireddi: “Microsimulation as evidence synthesis: informing a ‘health in all policies’ approach”. Chair: Matteo Richiardi
15.00	Session 14: Health II; Chair: Melissa Favreault
16.40	Coffee Break
16.55	Session 15: Health III; Chair: Bryan Tysinger
18.35	Conference Close

Presentations

DAY 1 – Wednesday 1st December 2021

Day 1	Wednesday, 1st December 2021
8.15	Welcome & Official Opening: Prof Cathal O’Donoghue, Prof Matteo Richiardi Introduction: Prof Robert Tanton, President, International Microsimulation Association
8.30	Session 1 – Labour supply and demand I. Chair: Karina Doorley
	Global and digitalised economy, new labour demand scenarios and optimal tax-transfer reforms. Presenter: Ugo Colombino
	EUROLAB: A Multidimensional Behavioural Model for EU Countries. Presenter: Edlira Narazani
	The `German job miracle’ and income inequality: a decomposition study. Presenter: Jammek Muehlhan
9.30	Coffee Break
9.45	Session 2 – Labour supply and demand II. Chair: Karina Doorley
	Understanding the rising trend in female labour force participation. Presenter: Nicolas Herault
	Estimation and simulation of labor income. Presenter: Leif Andreassen
	Do means-tested childcare subsides discourage mum and dad to work? Presenter: Trine E. Vattø
	Implementing a Negative Income Tax: Labour participation impact. Presenter: Amadeo Fuenmayor
11.05	Coffee Break
11.20	Session 3 – Environment. Chair: Cathal O’Donoghue
	Ex ante evaluation of the benefits and costs of agri-environment measures: An integrated approach based on ecological scorecards and microsimulation. Presenter: Andreas Tsakiridis
	Assessing the Importance of Localised Agronomic and Environmental Characteristics for Farm Level Yield and Intensity on Pastoral Based Livestock Systems: A Microsimulation Decomposition. Presenter: Yan Jin
	A Microsimulation Systems Approach to the Economic Impact of Technical Performance in the Sheep Sector. Presenter: Kevin Kilcline
	Incorporating Social Returns in Farm Afforestation Decisions. Presenter: Mary Ryan
	Optimising operations of food businesses using microsimulations and statistical learning. Presenter: William Ho
13.00	Lunch break
14.00	Plenary 1. Prof Nora Lustig: “Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID- 19 in Latin America”. Chair: Cathal O’Donoghue
15.00	Session 4 – Dynamic microsimulation I. Chair: Gijs Dekkers
	Dynamic Microsimulation Modelling: A Survey and Critical Assessment IV. Presenter: Cathal O’Donoghue
	An assessment of the ‘state of the art’ in modelling transition probabilities for dynamic microsimulation. Presenter: Robert Clay
	Dynamic Microsimulation of Taxes and Welfare Benefits by Database Imputation. Presenter: Justin van de Ven
	Validation of Dynamic Microsimulation Models. Presenter: Amílcar Moreira
16.20	Coffee Break
16.35	Session 5 – Dynamic microsimulation II. Chair: Denisa Sologon
	Introducing MIDAS_CH: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Switzerland. Presenter: Tanja Kirn
	Strategy, Meet Policy; Policy, Meet Strategy: Public Policy and Incentives in Financial Strategies. Presenter: Richard Morrison
	Decomposing the changes in household disposable income in mainland China: A distributional approach. Presenter: Chen Gong
	An Open Source Tax Benefit Model for Scotland. Presenter: Graham Stark
	LABSim: An integrated static-dynamic framework for life course analysis. Presenter: Matteo Richiardi
18.15	Coffee Break
18.30	Session 6 – Pensions and Retirement I. Chair: Gijs Dekkers
	Sustainability and adequacy of the old-age pension system in Norway. Presenter: Nils Martin Stølen
	How does gendered labour market trends and the pay gap translates into the projected GPG? A comparative analysis of five countries with low, middle and high GPGs. Presenter: Gijs Dekkers
	Anticipation of the contributory component adequacy in reforming the pension system in Ukraine. Presenter: Volodymyr Sarioglo
19.30	End of Day 1

Day 2	Thursday, 2nd December 2021
8.30	Plenary 2: Orcutt Lecture. Prof Anders Klevmarken: “Should we invest in microsimulation models?”. Chair: Robert Tanton
9.30	Coffee Break
9.45	Session 7 – Taxes and benefits I. Chair: Jinjing Li
	The fiscal and (re-)distributive consequences of introducing a hypothetical Basic Income in the Netherlands: A 2019 microsimulation exercise. Presenter: Elise Aerts
	Policies to reduce poverty in the Netherlands. Presenter: Benedikt Goderis
	The mitigating role of tax and benefit rescue packages for poverty and inequality in Africa amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Presenter: Jesse Lastunen
	The cushioning effect of fiscal policy in the EU during the COVID-19 pandemic. Presenter: Chrysa Leventi
11.05	Coffee Break
11.20	Session 8 – Taxes and benefits II. Chair: Tanja Kirn
	The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU. Presenter: Vanda Almeida
	COVID-19 and (gender) inequality in income: the impact of discretionary policy measures in Austria. Presenter: Silvia De Poli
	The COVID-19 Resilience of a Continental Welfare Regime – Nowcasting the Distributional Impact of the Crisis. Presenter: Denisa Sologon
	Income tax policy in Europe between two crises: from the Great Recession to the COVID- 19 pandemic. Presenter: Kajetan Trzcinski
	Assessing the cushioning effect of tax-benefit policies in the Andean region during the COVID-19 pandemic. Presenter: Diego Collado
13.00	Lunch break
14.00	Plenary 3. Prof Gemma Wright: “The distributional impact of COVID-19 and state- led remedial measures in Indonesia and South Africa in 2020”. Chair: Matteo Richiardi
15.00	Session 9 – Methodology. Chair: Matteo Richiardi
	Data and Methods for Constructing Synthetic Firms in CBO’s Health Insurance Simulation Model, HISIM2. Presenter: Ben Hopkins
	A closer look at Markov chain transition matrix estimation when the model cycle length is shorter than the data observation interval. Presenter: Duncan Ermini Leaf
	Determining internal migration factors in a demographic microsimulation via mixed-cell cellular automata. Presenter: Maria Teresa Pulido
	Benefit non-take-up and the mismatch between microsimulation and survey estimates of inequality and poverty (and how to fix it): Evidence for Luxembourg. Presenter: Emilia Toczydlowska
16.20	Coffee Break
16.35	Session 10 – Pensions and retirement II. Chair: Sophie Pennec
	Pensions microsimulation in the UK government. Presenters: Sam Mold and Ben Durcan
	Disparities in Quantity and Quality of Life Among Americans Nearing Retirement: The Forgotten Middle. Presenter: Jack Chapel
	The impact of taking up care tasks on pensions: A comparative analysis for 5 European countries. Presenter: Tanja Kirn
	Old age social protection through taxes? A comparison of the distribution effects of taxes on pensions and income from work in the EU. Presenter: Sakura Panagamuwa Gamage
17.55	Coffee Break
18.10	Session 11 – Labour supply and demand III. Chair: Philippe Liégeois
	Building online simplified interfaces for EUROMOD. Presenter: Kostas Manios
	CGE-EUROMOD Model for Latvia: Focus on Shadow Economy. Presenter: Ludmila Fadejeva
	On the role of incentives in evolutionary approaches to organizational design. Presenter: Stephan Leitner [CANCELLED]
	Hypothetical tax-benefit reforms in Hungary: shifting from tax reliefs to cash transfers for family support. Presenter: Michael Christl
19.30	End of Day 2

Day 3	Friday, 3rd December 2021
8.20	Plenary 4. Prof Matteo Richiardi, Prof Cathal O’Donoghue, Dr Philippe Liegeois: Microsimulation, Education and Training. Book Launch: “Practical Microsimulation Modelling”.
9.00	Best Paper by Young Researcher(s): Changing the tax structure to reduce income inequality in Colombia: A microsimulation model. Presenter: Nicolás Ortega Rodríguez
9.30	Coffee Break
9.45	Session 12 – Health I. Chair: Matteo Richiardi
	The societal and health costs of mitochondrial disease. Presenter: Katherine Lim
	Analysing cost-effectiveness of precision medicine in childhood cancer. Presenter: Owen Tan
	Developing a spatial microsimulation model for population health and health policy in New Zealand. Presenter: Jesse Wiki
	A microsimulation approach to assessing the economic impact of Preconception Carrier Screening. Presenter: Evelyn Lee
11.05	Coffee Break
11.20	Session 13 – Spatial microsimulation. Chair: Matteo Richiardi
	Carbon Taxes and mitigation options in three EU countries. Presenter: Jules Linden
	‘Build It and They Will Come’: Exploring Spatial Microsimulation of Bicycle Demand During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic in Metro Manila. Presenter: Noriel Christopher Tiglao
	Understanding Drivers of Variation in Marginal Abatement Costs of Agricultural Nitrogen Reduction Measures. Presenter: Daniel Urban
	Innovative segmentation using spatial micro-geography: How to identify households with high environmental awareness on a precise regional basis. Presenter: Erika Ritz
	Evaluating the fiscal and distributional impact of public policies at local level using EUROMOD and spatial microsimulation techniques. Presenter: Francesco Figari
13.00	Lunch break
14.00	Plenary 5. Prof Vittal Katikireddi: “Microsimulation as evidence synthesis: informing a ‘health in all policies’ approach”. Chair: Matteo Richiardi
15.00	Session 14 – Health II. Chair: Melissa Favreault
	Using dynamic microsimulation to project cognitive function in the elderly population. Presenter: Yifan Wei
	The Future Burden of Heart Disease in the United States, Europe, and Japan. Presenter: Jack Chapel
	Analysing the effects of healthcare payment policies in conjunction with tax-benefit policies: A microsimulation study with real-world healthcare data. Presenter: Jussi Tervola
	The Future Italian Model. Presenter: Federico Belotti
	Understanding the distributional impacts of Coronavirus: a CGE-microsimulation analysis. Presenter: Marc Jim Mariano
16.40	Coffee Break
16.55	Session 15 – Health III. Chair: Bryan Tysinger
	England and Wales’ demographics and state pension system under different COVID-19 scenarios. Presenter: Agnes Werpachowska
	The burden of cognitive impairment. Presenter: Ritika Chaturvedi
	A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Ageing and Health in England: The English Future Elderly Model. Presenter: Luke Archer
	Measuring the burden of one million excess deaths in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic. Presenter: Hanke Heun-Johnson
	The Long-term Value of Precision Bariatric Surgery Interventions for American Adults with Diabetes. Presenter: Tadeja Gracner
18:35	Conference Close

Surname	Name	Institutional affiliation
Aerts	Elise	University of Antwerp, Belgium
Almeida	Vanda	Joint Research Centre – European Commission
Andreassen	Leif	Statistics Norway
Archer	Luke	University of Leeds, UK
Chapel	Jack	University of Southern California, US
Chaturvedi	Ritika Chaturvedi	University of Southern California, US
Christl	Michael	Joint Research Centre, European Commission
Clay	Robert	University of Leeds, UK
Collado	Diego	University of Essex, UK
Colombino	Ugo	University of Turin, Italy
De Poli	Silvia	Joint Research Centre, European Commission
Durcan	Ben	Department of Work and Pensions, UK Government
Ermini Leaf	Duncan	University of South California, US
Fadejeva	Ludmila	Latvijas Banka
Figari	Francesco	University of Insubria, Italy
Fuenmayor	Amadeo	University of Valencia, Spain
Gijs	Dekkers	Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium
Goderis	Benedikt	The Netherlands Institute for Social Research (SCP)
Gong	Chen	Maastricht University/UNU-Merit, Netherlands
Gracner	Tadeja Gračner	RAND Corporation, US
Herault	Nicolas	University of Melbourne, Australia
Heun-Johnson	Hanke	University of Southern California, US
Ho	William	Averisera Ltd
Hopkins	Ben	U.S. Congressional Budget Office
Jin	Yan	Teagasc, Ireland
Katikireddi	Vittal	University of Glasgow, UK
Kilcline	Kevin	Teagasc, Ireland
Kirn	Tanja	University of Liechtenstein
Klevmarken	Anders	Uppsala Universitet, Sweden
Lastunen	Jesse	UNU-WIDER, Finland
Lee	Evelyn	Macquarie University, Australia
Leitner	Stephan	University of Klagenfurt, Germany
Leventi	Chrysa	Council of Economic Advisors, Greek Ministry of Finance
Lim	Katherine	Macquarie University, Australia
Linden	Jules	LISER, Luxembourg
Lustig	Nora	Tulane University, US
Manios	Kostas	University of Essex, UK
Mariano	Marc Jim	KPMG Economics, Australia
Mold	Sam	Department of Work and Pensions, UK Government
Moreira	Amílcar	SOCIUS, Portugal
Morrison	Richard	Ruthen Team, Canada
Muehlhan	Jannek	Federal Statistical Office Germany (Destatis)
Narazani	Edlira	Joint Research Centre, European Commission
O’Donoghue	Cathal	National University of Ireland, Galway
Ortega Rodríguez	Nicolás	Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Colombia
Panagamuwa Gamage	Sakura	University of Antwerp, Belgium
Piano Mortari	Andrea	CEIS Tor Vergata, Italy
Pulido	Maria Teresa	University of Leeds, UK
Ritz	Erika	Infas 360 GmbH, Germany
Ryan	Mary	Teagasc, Ireland
Sarioglo	Volodymyr	National Academy of Science of Ukraine
Sologon	Denisa	LISER, Luxembourg
Stark	Graham	Open University, UK
Stølen	Nils Martin	Statistics Norway
Tan	Owen	Macquarie University, Australia
Tervola	Jussi	Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare
Tiglao	Noriel Christopher	University of the Philippines
Toczydlowska	Emilia	University of Luxembourg
Trzcinski	Kajetan	University of Greifswald, Germany
Tsakiridis	Andreas	Teagasc, Ireland
Urban	Daniel	National University of Ireland, Galway
van de Ven	Justin	University of Essex, UK
Vattø	Trine E.	Statistics Norway
Wei	Yifan	University of Southern California, US
Werpachowska	Agnes	Savvie AS, Norway
Wiki	Jesse	University of Auckland, New Zealand
Wright	Gemma	SASPRI, South Africa