The removal of the £20 weekly uplift in Universal Credit standard allowances and Working Tax Credit basic element, “the biggest overnight cut to the basic rate of social security since the modern welfare state” as the Joseph Rowntree Foundation put it, would push 1 million people, of which 450,000 children, into poverty in 2022, in the UK.

This is the startling result of our new piece of research, funded by the Greater London Authority and performed using UKMOD, the free tax-benefit microsimulation model for the UK and its constituent nations.

In particular, in the UK as a whole 380,000 lone parents / children with lone parents will go into poverty, together with 105,000 individuals living in households composed of a couple with one child; 180,000 living in households with a couple and two children; 205,000 living in households with a couple and three or more children; and over 150,000 living in households with at least one disabled person.

Results for London are summarised here and here.