UKMOD B2025.03 released

UKMOD version B2025.03 is now available, with model updated to reflect policy changes announced in the Government’s Spring Statement and the OBR March Fiscal Outlook. More in details, the model has been amended in the following ways:

  • Universal Credit Health Element: Maintain at 2025-26 rate until 2029-30
    • The Universal Credit limited capability for work and work-related activity element ($UCLCWRAG) has been frozen from 2026/27 to 2029/30.
  • Universal Credit Health Element: Reduce rate by 50% for new claimants from April 2026 and maintain until 2029/30.
    • New model parameters ($UCLCWNewClaimShare and $UCLCWNewClaimFactor) have been introduced that project the proportion of claimants for UC limited capability for work and work-related activity identified in input data that will be treated as new claimants and subject to the 50% reduction under the announced change.
    • The new factor $UCLCWNewClaimShare has been adjusted to match budget projections concerning the effects of the reform on Annually Managed Expenditure.
  • Universal Credit Standard Allowance: Increase above inflation for all claimants from April 2026, reaching CPI +5% from April 2029, with the standard allowance expected to be worth £106 per week in 2029-30
    • Uprate all standard allowances for Universal Credit by September CPI plus 1.2%
  • Personal Independence Payment (PIP):
    • Change the PIP assessment so claimants must score four points in any one activity from 2026-27
    • Increase capacity for processing award reviews from April 2026
      • A new function (13.8) has been introduced that projects the proportion of claimants for PIP identified in input data (bdimbwa, bdiscwa) that will be excluded from the benefit under the announced change.
      • The new function has been adjusted to match projected effects on Annually Managed Expenditure reported in the budget.

The following measures contained in the Spring statement are not reflected by model adjustments:

  • Work Capability Assessment: Do not proceed with Autumn Statement 2023 descriptor reforms
  • Work Capability Assessment: Restart reassessments from April 2026
  • Welfare Fraud and Error: Increase preventative checks in Universal Credit from 2025-26
  • Welfare Fraud and Error: Recruit over 500 new counter fraud and error staff from April 2025
  • Tax Debt Collection: Invest in additional HMRC debt management capacity to increase collection of overdue tax debt
  • Tax Debt Collection: Invest in 600 additional HMRC debt management staff to increase collection of overdue tax debt
  • Tax Collection: Invest in 500 additional HMRC compliance staff to increase collection of tax due
  • Late Payment Penalties: Increase late payment penalties for VAT taxpayers and income tax Self Assessment taxpayers as they join Making Tax Digital from April 2025
  • Making Tax Digital for Income Tax Self Assessment: Expand rollout to those with incomes over £20,000 from 6 April 2028, and further detailed changes
  • Council Tax: Increase flexibility for fire and police precepts to £5 and £14 for 2025-26 from April 2025
  • High Income Child Benefit Charge (HICBC): Allow employed individuals to pay their HICBC liability through PAYE without the need to register for Self Assessment from Summer 2025

System Updates

  • All uprating indices updated to reflect most recently published data, including information published by the Office for Budget Responsibility with the March Fiscal Outlook.
  • Local Housing Allowance rates updated for 2025/26 published data.
  • Include Scottish Child Payment in the list of passport benefits for receipt of Free School Meals by children in P6 and P7 (aged 10 to 11).

Data Revisions

  • training_data.txt updated to include consumption variables.

Code Corrections and Amendments

  • Updated Statistics Presenter templates so that they can be used with data prior to 2018.
  • TCO add-on amended to comply with changes to EUROMOD software.

 

The model is available for download from the CeMPA website at https://www.microsimulation.ac.uk/ukmod/access/.