Estimating population mental health effects of the rollout of Universal Credit: difference-in-differences analyses using the UK Household Longitudinal Study, 2009 – 2019

Authors

Maria Marimpi, Benjamin Barr, Andy Baxter, Samuel Hugh-Jones, David Taylor-Robinson, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Mandy Cheetam, Steph Morris, Luke Monford, Matteo Richiardi, Matt Sutton, Clare Bambra, Peter Craig, Sophie Wickham

Publication Date

Feb 2025

Abstract

Background: Universal Credit (UC), introduced in 2013, has led to acute health harms among unemployed people, but the policy’s impacts longer-term and on broader claimant groups remain unknown. Methods: We exploited the geographical variation in UC rollout to investigate impacts on population mental health (SF-12 Mental Component Summary) for up to four years following implementation for a larger cohort of claimants, including employed people. We linked 108, 247 observations (29,528 individuals) from the UK Household Longitudinal Study between 2009- 2019 to administrative Local Authority district data. We used standard and novel difference-in-differences approaches to estimate the average effect in the follow-up period and at different time points post-introduction, comparing a working age UC eligible population (treatment group) to an alternative benefits population (comparison group).Findings: UC was associated with mental health declining by 0·70 units (95% CI -1·24 to -0·15), a 1·5% relative reduction. Effects were larger during the first year of exposure (-1·01, 95% CI -1·93 to - 0·10) without returning to baseline levels. Between 2013 and 2019, an estimated 111,954 (95% CI 35,497 to 182,948) additional people experienced depression and/or anxiety after UC’s introduction, 27,115 of whom may have reached diagnostic threshold for common mental disorders. Interpretation: UC led to a sustained deterioration in population mental health, particularly marked in the first year of implementation. Reforms to UC are warranted to mitigate adverse mental health impacts.

Publication type

CeMPA Working Paper Series

Series Number

CEMPA3/25

Research area

Tax and benefit systems

Links

https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-25

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